Model Provides Well-Calibrated Risk Estimates for First Metachronous cSCC

WEDNESDAY, April 29, 2026 (HealthDay News) -- A competing risk model provides well-calibrated absolute risk estimates for a first metachronous cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) after an index tumor, according to a study published online March 4 in the British Journal of Dermatology.Andrya Reder Hollatz, from the Erasmus MC Cancer Institute in Rotterdam, Netherlands, and colleagues developed and validated a prognostic model to quantify individualized absolute risk for a first metachronous cSCC after an index tumor in a nationwide, population-based cohort study of 11,737 patients with a first histologically confirmed cSCC with up to 10 years of follow-up. Subsequent tumors were identified; routinely available clinical and pathological predictors were used to develop a Fine-Gray competing-risk model.The researchers found that 3,288 patients (28 percent) developed a first metachronous cSCC during follow-up. Markers of cumulative ultraviolet exposure and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic leukemia were identified as key predictors. Higher risk was also seen in association with male sex and the presence of synchronous cSCC at baseline. Modest discrimination was seen (cross-validated five-year time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.64), while excellent calibration was demonstrated across all predictor subgroups. A modest net benefit was seen for predicted probabilities between 18 and 45 percent in a decision curve analysis. A nearly fivefold acceleration was seen on risk stratification into tertiles; the high-risk tertile reached a cumulative incidence of 15 percent in 1.4 years compared with 6.9 years for the low-risk tertile."Despite modest discrimination, the model quantifies how established predictors collectively shape risk in this high-susceptibility population and quantifies relative risk acceleration," the authors write.Several authors disclosed ties to the biopharmaceutical industry.Abstract/Full Text.Sign up for our weekly HealthDay newsletter

Model Provides Well-Calibrated Risk Estimates for First Metachronous cSCC

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