MONDAY, June 11 (HealthDay News) -- About 26.6 million people worldwide currently have Alzheimer disease and that number will quadruple by 2050, affecting 1 in 85 people, according to a study presented June 10 at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference on Prevention of Dementia in Washington, D.C. Even small delays in disease onset and progression could have a significant impact on prevalence, the authors said.
Ron Brookmeyer, Ph.D., from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, and colleagues developed a computer model to predict the worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer disease using United Nations' global population forecasts and data on the incidence and mortality of Alzheimer disease.
The researchers found that 26.6 million people worldwide had Alzheimer disease in 2006. They estimated that by 2050, the prevalence would be 100 million. Nearly half (43 percent) of cases would require a high level of care such as a nursing home. Delaying disease onset and progression by one year would reduce the number of cases in 2050 by about 9.2 million, most of whom would have required a high level of care.
"A global epidemic of Alzheimer disease is on the horizon," Brookmeyer and colleagues conclude. "Modest advances in therapeutic and preventive strategies that lead to even small delays in Alzheimer disease onset and progression can significantly reduce the global burden of the disease."
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